Estimated effectiveness of symptom and risk screening to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
Identifieur interne : 000662 ( 2020/Analysis ); précédent : 000661; suivant : 000663Estimated effectiveness of symptom and risk screening to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
Auteurs : Katelyn Gostic [États-Unis] ; Ana Cr Gomez [États-Unis] ; Riley O. Mummah [États-Unis] ; Adam J. Kucharski [Royaume-Uni] ; James O. Lloyd-Smith [États-Unis]Source :
- eLife [ 2050-084X ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Dépistage systématique (), Dépistage systématique (normes), Flambées de maladies, Humains, Infections asymptomatiques, Infections à coronavirus (diagnostic), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Lutte contre l'infection, Pneumopathie virale (diagnostic), Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Voyage, Évaluation des risques.
- MESH :
- diagnostic : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- normes : Dépistage systématique.
- épidémiologie : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- Dépistage systématique, Flambées de maladies, Humains, Infections asymptomatiques, Lutte contre l'infection, Voyage, Évaluation des risques.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Asymptomatic Infections, Betacoronavirus (isolation & purification), Coronavirus Infections (diagnosis), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Infection Control, Mass Screening (methods), Mass Screening (standards), Pneumonia, Viral (diagnosis), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Risk Assessment, Travel.
- MESH :
- diagnosis : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- isolation & purification : Betacoronavirus.
- methods : Mass Screening.
- standards : Mass Screening.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Asymptomatic Infections, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Infection Control, Risk Assessment, Travel.
Abstract
Traveller screening is being used to limit further spread of COVID-19 following its recent emergence, and symptom screening has become a ubiquitous tool in the global response. Previously, we developed a mathematical model to understand factors governing the effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent spread of emerging pathogens (Gostic et al., 2015). Here, we estimate the impact of different screening programs given current knowledge of key COVID-19 life history and epidemiological parameters. Even under best-case assumptions, we estimate that screening will miss more than half of infected people. Breaking down the factors leading to screening successes and failures, we find that most cases missed by screening are fundamentally undetectable, because they have not yet developed symptoms and are unaware they were exposed. Our work underscores the need for measures to limit transmission by individuals who become ill after being missed by a screening program. These findings can support evidence-based policy to combat the spread of COVID-19, and prospective planning to mitigate future emerging pathogens.
DOI: 10.7554/eLife.55570
PubMed: 32091395
Affiliations:
- Royaume-Uni, États-Unis
- Angleterre, Californie, Grand Londres, Illinois
- Chicago, Londres, Los Angeles
- Université de Chicago
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pubmed:32091395Le document en format XML
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Previously, we developed a mathematical model to understand factors governing the effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent spread of emerging pathogens (Gostic et al., 2015). Here, we estimate the impact of different screening programs given current knowledge of key COVID-19 life history and epidemiological parameters. Even under best-case assumptions, we estimate that screening will miss more than half of infected people. Breaking down the factors leading to screening successes and failures, we find that most cases missed by screening are fundamentally undetectable, because they have not yet developed symptoms and are unaware they were exposed. Our work underscores the need for measures to limit transmission by individuals who become ill after being missed by a screening program. These findings can support evidence-based policy to combat the spread of COVID-19, and prospective planning to mitigate future emerging pathogens.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Royaume-Uni</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Angleterre</li><li>Californie</li><li>Grand Londres</li><li>Illinois</li></region><settlement><li>Chicago</li><li>Londres</li><li>Los Angeles</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Chicago</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Illinois"><name sortKey="Gostic, Katelyn" sort="Gostic, Katelyn" uniqKey="Gostic K" first="Katelyn" last="Gostic">Katelyn Gostic</name></region><name sortKey="Gomez, Ana Cr" sort="Gomez, Ana Cr" uniqKey="Gomez A" first="Ana Cr" last="Gomez">Ana Cr Gomez</name><name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, James O" sort="Lloyd Smith, James O" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J" first="James O" last="Lloyd-Smith">James O. Lloyd-Smith</name><name sortKey="Mummah, Riley O" sort="Mummah, Riley O" uniqKey="Mummah R" first="Riley O" last="Mummah">Riley O. Mummah</name></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Kucharski, Adam J" sort="Kucharski, Adam J" uniqKey="Kucharski A" first="Adam J" last="Kucharski">Adam J. Kucharski</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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